Projections for Appreciation of Homes by 2017

Yesterday we looked at information from the most recent Home Price Expectation Survey–a quarterly nationwide survey of over 100 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists.

We saw what the average annual appreciation of home prices has been since the Pre-Bubble time (1987) up until now, as well as what the experts expect the housing market to do over the next five years.

Today let’s look at what the experts say about the cumulative appreciation of homes by 2017:


The chart above shows four different projections by the experts. The green bar is the Pre-Bubble Trend which shows what the percentage appreciation of homes would have been in 2017 had we stayed on the Pre-Bubble trajectory and not gone through the bubble, burst and recovery periods. The red bar indicates the expectations of the optimists of the group–the Bulls (35.5%). The blue bar displays the projections of all panelists averaged together (23.7%), and the yellow bar denotes the expectations of the pessimists–the Bears (13.1%).

So what does all of this tell us? Basically, even the most negative people in this group of experts believe that homes will appreciate at least 13.1% by the year 2017. What’s also interesting is that the Pre-Bubble Trend (19.4%) isn’t too far off from the projections of all of the panelists: 23.7%. It seems that the experts feel we are in a good place in regards to appreciation.

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